安融（香港）评级确认中华人民共和国“AA+”国际评级；展望:稳定；2024年欧元主权债券“AA+”
安融（香港）评级确认中华人民共和国“AA+”国际评级；展望:稳定；2024年欧元主权债券“AA+”
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认中华人民共和国（简称“中国”）的长期外币主权信用等级为AA+，评级展望为稳定，中华人民共和国2024年欧元主权债券（简称“中国欧元债”）信用等级为AA+。
评级结果肯定了中国经济继续保持增长，经济体量处于世界前列水平；中国利用国际金融组织和外国政府获得多方的信用借贷支持；人民币连续十个月成为全球第四位支付货币。同时也关注了2022财年和2023年财年，政府债务规模持续扩大，政府债务增长率高于GDP增长率，政府债务负担逐年增加。
关键评级观点
优势
2023年，中国经济继续保持增长，经济体量处于世界前列水平。
截至2023年末，中国利用国际金融组织和外国政府贷款累计承诺额约1,851.16亿美元，获得多方的信用借贷支持。
人民币连续十个月成为全球第四位支付货币。
关注
2022财年和2023年财年，政府债务规模持续扩大，政府债务增长率高于GDP增长率，政府债务负担逐年增加。
评级展望
中国的赤字率仍有一定的上升空间，外汇储备较为充裕降低了债务违约风险，维持较大规模的贸易顺差。综合考虑，安融评级授予中国的信用评级展望为稳定。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
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相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其他方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘AA+’ International Rating to the People’s Republic of China’s 2024 EUR Sovereign Bond, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA+’ to the People’s Republic of China’s EUR Sovereign Bond in 2024, with a stable outlook.
The China EUR Bond’s rating is based on China’s continued economic growth, with its economic volume ranking among the largest in the world. China obtained multiple credit loan support from international financial organizations and foreign governments. As a sovereign country, China holds the power to independently issue and manage its currency. RMB has ranked as the world’s fourth most-used currency for payment for ten consecutive months. However, the rating also highlights concerns that in the 2022 fiscal year and 2023 fiscal year, government debt continued to expand, and the growth rate of government debt surpassed the GDP growth rate, leading to an increasing debt burden year by year.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
In 2023, China’s economy continued to grow, maintaining its economic volume among the largest in the world.
By the end of 2023, China had obtained a cumulative loan commitment of approximately 185.116 billion USD from international financial organizations and foreign governments, receiving support from multiple credit lending sources.
As a sovereign country, China holds the power to independently issue and manage its currency. RMB has ranked as the world’s fourth most-used currency for payment for ten consecutive months.
Weaknesses
In the 2022 fiscal year and 2023 fiscal year, government debt continued to expand, and the growth rate of government debt surpassed the GDP growth rate, leading to an increasing debt burden year by year.
RATING OUTLOOK
China’s deficit ratio still has some room for increase. Substantial foreign exchange reserves reduce the risk of debt default, maintaining a significant trade surplus. Considering all these factors, ARHK has assigned a stable credit rating outlook to China.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.