安融（香港）评级确认德意志联邦共和国“AA+”国际评级；展望:负面
安融（香港）评级确认德意志联邦共和国“AA+”国际评级；展望:负面
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认德意志联邦共和国（简称“德国”）的长期外币主权信用等级为“AA+”，展望为“负面”。
评级结果肯定了德意志联邦共和国的德国经济体量处于世界领先水平，产业多元，且国民收入很高；欧盟统一的市场使德国经常账户顺差规模很大，对外偿付实力很强。同时也关注到德国经济受到地缘政治格局变动的冲击，造成能源成本的上升和供应链的中断等风险。
关键评级观点
优势
德国经济体量处于世界领先水平，产业多元，且国民收入很高。
欧盟统一的市场使德国经常账户顺差规模很大，对外偿付实力很强。
关注
德国经济受到地缘政治格局变动的冲击，造成能源成本的上升和供应链的中断。
评级展望
俄乌冲突使得德国地缘政治风险有所抬升，对德国的汽车、机械制造、化工等传统优势制造业造成较大冲击。综合考虑，安融（香港）评级授予德国的信用评级展望为负面。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
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相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其他方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘AA+’ International Rating to The Federal Republic of Germany, Outlook Negative
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA+’ to The Federal Republic of Germany (hereinafter referred to as ‘Germany’) with a negative outlook.
The rating results confirm
Germany’s economic volume ranking among the world’s leading countries, with diverse industries and high levels of national income. The unified Europeanｕｎｉｏｎmarket has contributed to Germany’s substantial current account surplus, strengthening its external repayment capacity. However, Germany’s rating highlights concerns regarding the risks of increasing energy costs and disruptions in supply chains, as Germany’s economy has been impacted by shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Germany’s economic volume ranks among the world’s leading countries, with diverse industries and high levels of national income.
The unified Europeanｕｎｉｏｎmarket has contributed to Germany’s substantial current account surplus, strengthening its external repayment capacity.
Weaknesses
Germany’s economy has been impacted by shifts in the geopolitical landscape, resulting in increased energy costs and supply chain disruptions.
RATING OUTLOOK
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has heightened Germany’s geopolitical risks, causing significant impacts on its traditional advantageous manufacturing sectors, such as automotive, machinery, and chemical engineering. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a negative outlook to the credit rating of Germany.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.