安融（香港）评级确认日本国“A+”国际评级；展望:稳定
安融（香港）评级确认日本国“A+”国际评级；展望:稳定
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认日本国（简称“日本”）的长期主体评级为“A+”，展望为“稳定”。
评级结果肯定了日本经济增长稳健，经济和金融环境较为稳健，且受惠于长期的政治稳定和强有力的政策支持，特别是日本央行的宽松政策；同时也关注到日本的财政赤字和极高的债务水平是其经济增长的不稳定因素。
关键评级观点
优势
日本经济规模很大，经济增长稳健且经济增长潜力较大；
日本较强的国内融资基础和较高的储蓄率有助于保持财政稳定；
日本政治和金融环境的稳定性较强，有利于经济稳定增长。
关注
人口老龄化是日本最大的长期风险因素。随着老龄人口的增加，日本劳动力数量持续减少，对经济增长潜力和消费需求构成压力；
日本的债务占GDP比率高居全球首位，而财政赤字的可持续性是日本经济的长期隐患；
日本作为出口导向型经济体，对全球市场高度依赖。若全球经济增长放缓、贸易保护主义抬头或供应链中断，可能对日本的出口和整体经济增长构成不利影响。
评级展望
预计日本经济将稳步增长，经济的系统风险较低。综合考虑，安融（香港）评级给予日本的信用评级展望为稳定。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
若欲获取进一步的信息，敬请访问www.arrating.com
相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其它方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘A+’ International Rating to Japan, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘A+’ to Japan with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm Japan’s solid economic growth, relatively stable economic and financial environment, supported by long-term political stability and robust policy measures, particularly through the accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. The rating also highlights concerns regarding Japan’s fiscal deficit and extremely high debt levels, which are the significant factors affecting the stability of its economic growth.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Japan has a large economic scale, solid economic growth, and high economic growth potential.
Japan’s robust domestic financing foundation and high savings rate contribute to maintaining fiscal stability.
Japan’s political and financial environments are stable, which promotes steady economic growth.
Weaknesses
The biggest long-term risk factor in Japan is population aging. As the aging population increases, the labor force in Japan continues to decline, placing significant pressure on the country’s economic growth potential and consumer demand.
Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, and the sustainability of its fiscal deficit remains a long-term risk for Japan’s economy.
As an export-oriented economy, Japan is highly dependent on global markets. Any slowdown in global economic growth, rise in trade protectionism or disruptions in supply chain may negatively affect Japan’s exports and overall economic growth.
RATING OUTLOOK
Japan’s economy is expected to achieve steady growth, with low systemic risk. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of Japan.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.