安融（香港）评级确认巴西联邦共和国“BB”长期外币主权信用等级；展望:稳定
安融（香港）评级确认巴西联邦共和国“BB”长期外币主权信用等级；展望:稳定
2024年12月30日，中国香港。安融（香港）评级确认巴西联邦共和国（简称“巴西”）的长期外币主权信用等级为“BB”，展望为“稳定”。
评级结果肯定了巴西经济的韧性、农业部门的强劲表现和国内消费的持续扩张，经常帐户收窄、境外直投回升，对外偿付能力强；同时也关注到巴西经济实力较弱，近年来经济增速放缓且波动较大；巴西财政改革推进的难度较大，债务的可持续性有待关注；巴西政府效率较低，法制建设亟待完善，政府面临改革及稳定性等诸多挑战等风险因素。
关键评级观点
优势
巴西经济体量较大，农业部门表现强劲。国内消费持续扩张。
巴西财政赤字和债务水平自高位回落，外部风险敞口较小。
净出口带动巴西经常帐户赤字收窄，大量的外汇储备及境外直接投资为对外偿付提供支撑。
关注
巴西经济实力较弱，近年来经济增速放缓且波动较大。
巴西财政改革推进的难度较大，债务的可持续性有待关注。
巴西政府效率较低，法制建设亟待完善，政府面临改革及稳定性等诸多挑战。
评级展望
预计巴西财政表现将稳步改善，债务风险整体可控。综合考虑，安融（香港）授予巴西的信用评级展望为稳定。
注：
1、上述评级均为主动评级。
2、本文译自英文版新闻稿。若有分歧，以英文版为准。
专案组组员
林芮礽，分析师
评审委员会主任
胡超
huchao@arrating.com
媒体联系
complaints@arrating.com
评级服务联系
林芮礽
相关信用评级委员会召开日期：2024年12月30日
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相关的评级方法和模型
《主权信用评级方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次评级依据评级对象已经正式对外公布的信息，相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性由评级对象及其信息发布方负责。安融(香港)评级按照相关性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行了审慎分析，但对上述信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准确性和及时性不作任何保证。评级结果未考虑无法获取的可能对信用等级有重要影响的非公开数据。
本报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着安融(香港)评级实质性建议任何使用者据本报告采取投资、借贷和交易等行为，也不能作为使用者购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。在任何情况下，安融(香港)评级、安融(香港)评级董事、股东、雇员、代表不对任何投资者（包括机构投资者和个人投资者）使用本报告所表述的安融(香港)评级的分析结果而出现的任何损害、开支、费用或损失承担任何责任，亦不对被评对象或其发行人使用本报告或将本报告提供给其他方所产生的任何后果承担任何责任。
ARHK Affirms ‘BB’ International Rating to The Federative Republic of Brazil, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘BB’ to The Federative Republic of Brazil (hereinafter referred to as ‘Brazil’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm the resilience of Brazil's economy, the strong performance of the agricultural sector, and the continuous expansion of domestic consumption, narrowing current account deficit, recovery of foreign direct investment, and strong external repayment ability; However, it notes concerns about Brazil's relatively weak economic strength, recent slowdown, and significant volatility in economic growth. The challenges in advancing fiscal reforms, the need for sustainable debt management, low government efficiency, the necessity for improved rule of law, and numerous challenges related to reform and stability are also acknowledged.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Brazil has a large economy, with a strong performance in the agricultural sector. Domestic consumption continues to expand.
Brazil's fiscal deficit and debt levels have fallen from high levels, with relatively low exposure to external risks.
Net exports drive the narrowing of Brazil's current account deficit, and a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and foreign direct investment provide support for external repayment.
Weaknesses
Brazil's economic strength is relatively weak, with a slowdown and significant volatility in economic growth in recent years.
The difficulty of advancing fiscal reforms in Brazil is high, and the sustainability of debt needs attention.
Brazil's government efficiency is low, the rule of law construction needs improvement, and the government faces many challenges such as reform and stability.
RATING OUTLOOK
It is expected that Brazil's fiscal performance will steadily improve, and overall debt risk is controllable. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of Brazil.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.